Fig 1: Modeled spore dispersal based on a source location in the central Nile Delta, Egypt for March, April, May 2014. Pink areas indicate where 95% of released spores are predicted to be deposited. Given high seasonal consistency, similar dispersal patterns would be expected to occur in March-May 2015.

Following the confirmed detection of Ug99 (race TTKSK) in Egypt in 2014 (BGRI special newsletter report April 2015) increased vigilance is needed for stem rust in the eastern Mediterranean. Although no confirmed reports of race TTKSK have been obtained from Egypt in 2015, trace amounts of stem rust (race unknown) were detected in the central delta of Egypt in early March 2015. No further reports of stem rust outbreaks have been reported from Egypt in 2015. Crops in Egypt are now approaching maturity, with harvesting occurring between mid April to mid May. However, if any stem rust inoculum were to build up in Egypt then spore deposition models run jointly by the UK Met Office and Cambridge University indicate that there is a risk of onward movement of spores to the eastern Mediterranean basin. Model results show consistent seasonal deposition patterns over the last 12 years, indicating  a higher risk, relative to other areas, of spore deposition for Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, eastern Syria and southern Turkey. During the months April and May typically there is a large spatial variation of deposition patterns, with long-distance dispersal of spores that reach eastern Mediterranean countries (see Fig 1 – Data from March, April, May 2014 used as an illustrative example of typical spore dispersal patterns). The most recent spore deposition forecast maps for the period 8 – 14 April 2015, based on confirmed sites for Ug99 (race TTKSK) in Egypt in 2014 agree well with the long-term dispersal trends. Increased surveillance and monitoring is advised in Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, eastern Syria and southern Turkey. Sampling of any stem rust detected in the eastern Mediterranean and rapid race identity confirmation is recommended (either by race analysis on live samples or through the USDA CDL SNP assay for the Ug99 race group). Please contact Dave Hodson, CIMMYT (d.hodson@cgiar.org) for more details on sampling options.